Like many millennial men, James Harris sometimes wagers on sports. But over the weekend, Harris—one-half of the popular menswear podcast Throwing Fits—zeroed in on an entirely different market: the Met Gala. He staked $120 across three positions on Kalshi—a prediction market that allows users to trade on everything from President Donald Trump’s posts on X to Survivor episode outcomes—betting that celebrities Stanley Tucci, Meryl Streep, and Emma Chamberlain will appear on the red carpet. “I'm going big on The Devil Wears Prada 2,” he tells me.
While questions about Met Gala invitees and their outfits have always generated online gossip ahead of the event, prediction markets have turned idle fashion speculation into a casino game. So far, speculators on Polymarket and Kalshi have shelled out north of $750,000 on Met Gala-related markets. The morning of the event, Kalshi gives Kim Kardashian a 30% of wearing Gucci, while Polymarket predicts there's only a 25% chance Lady Gaga will attend tonight’s festivities.
The trading volume bet on the Met Gala pales in comparison to the money placed on other tentpole events, like the Super Bowl and political elections, which regularly exceed hundreds of millions of dollars. But the fashion extravaganza’s markets are introducing a more stylish set to the billion-dollar betting companies. Take Harris, who had never used Kalshi before now. “This is just me injecting a little bit of personal stakes into the Met Gala,” he explains.
Most of the prediction platforms’ trading volume stem from sports, and both Kalshi and Polymarket seem interested in luring sports-oblivious users to their markets. Last summer, Polymarket took bets about Vogue’s next editor-in-chief, and over $35,000 has been spent on Kalshi predicting the cover star of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit edition.
Anna Wintour and Chloe Malle
Unlike presidential elections, there are already answers to Met Gala questions as people place their bets. Some people know whether or not Meryl Streep plans to attend the benefit. Some stylists know which labels their clients plan on wearing. That means members of the fashion industry could run into legal landmines if they decide to place bets. “These markets could entirely be driven by insiders, people who know the information before it happens,” says gambling industry analyst Dustin Gouker. While Valentino-or-Versace markets are less consequential than, say, the timing of an American invasion of Venezuela, it could still expose insiders to regulators’ wrath.
But it doesn’t require a mole at the Mark Hotel, where many VIPs get dressed before the Met Gala, to boost betters’ odds. “We know who [A$AP] Rocky works with,” notes Harris, referencing the rapper’s ambassador deal with Chanel. “Is Rocky gonna wear Givenchy? It's like, obviously not. If you know a little bit about the industry you can kind of make an informed guess.”
